Elections

#187: Election Forecasting, Prediction Markets, and Gamification, with Prof. Matthew Wall and Dr. Louis Bromfield

October 18, 2025 Academics

Professor Matthew Wall and Dr. Louis Bromfield, both at the Department of Politics, Philosophy, and International Relations at Swansea University, discuss election forecasting. We cover different types of political forecasting, such as polls and prediction models, and dive into prediction markets like Polymarket. We then discuss the concept of the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and what attributes make a good forecaster, before turning to how betting market odds, forecasting platforms, and gamification can be used in research. 

 

Resources:


Horse Race Politics Podcast on YouTube and Spotify
Horse Race Politics Platform
Professor Wall’s study on the 2007 Irish Elections
Dr. Bromfield’s Doctoral Thesis

#185: How the EU is Shielding Elections from Disinformation, Manipulation, and AI, with Jakub Szymik

June 22, 2025 Civil Society

Jakub Szymik, Founder of CEE Digital Democracy Watch, discusses the EU’s ongoing initiatives to fight disinformation, regulate political advertising, and protect election integrity on social media. Jakub shares his insights on the Digital Services Act, the European Democracy Shield, and how these initiatives relate to digital political advertising on social media. We also discuss the latest Polish Presidential elections in terms of digital ad spending, Gen AI content, and political influencers.

 

CEE Digital Democracy Watch has just published a new report outlining how 60 stakeholder from CEE countries perceive the effectiveness of EU tech regulation and what challenges remain moving forward.

 

Read more about CEE Digital Democracy Watch’s proposed policy actions for the European Democracy Shield, including the disinformation monitoring service mentioned in the episode. 

#177: Political Influencers in the 2024 US Election and Beyond, with Ryan Davis

December 15, 2024 Digital Strategists

Ryan Davis, Co-founder and Chief Operating Officer at People First, guests for a debrief on content creators in the 2024 US election. We discuss content creator strategies between the two parties, how influencers have become professionalized, and what this means for communications and elections going forward.


Advertising, authenticity, and power flows are constantly in flux in this environment, and the very conceptions of old and new media are being challenged. A space to watch!


Check out People First’s Substack to keep in the loop, and Ryan’s Travel Podcast just for fun 🙂

#157: Political Targeting, Strategic Communication, and Democracy, with Prof. Sanne Kruikemeier

January 21, 2023 Academics

Prof. Sanne Kruikemeier, Professor of Digital Media and Society at Wageningen University & Research, discusses her latest research on political targeting. We discuss how political targeting differs in EU and US contexts, how perceptions of targeting affect voters’ democratic perceptions, and what types of issues parties strategically communicate during election campaigns.

 

Here are the studies discussed in the episode:

 

Data-driven campaigning and democratic disruption: Evidence from six advanced democracies (2022)

Understanding the democratic role of perceived online political micro-targeting (2022)

(Tar)getting you: The use of online political targeted messages on Facebook (2022)

#150: Swedish Elections 2022, Political Communication, and Social Media, with Dr. Nils Gustafsson

September 9, 2022 Academics

Dr. Nils Gustafsson, Senior Lecturer of Strategic Communication at Lund University, discusses the run-up to the 2022 Swedish Elections and then findings from his research. First, we chat about the main political issues that Swedes are voting on, as well as how political parties and party leaders are digital campaigning on social media. Then, Dr. Gustafsson shares findings from three of his research projects. We discuss how Facebook was viewed as a tool for participation when it first became widely adopted in Sweden, how rejection sensitivity might affect political expression online, and how media narratives about polarization in Swedish media have changed over time.


Here are links to the two published studies we discuss in the episode:


The Subtle Nature of Facebook Politics: Swedish Social Network Site Users and Political Participation (2012)

A Social Safety Net? Rejection Sensitivity and Political Opinion Sharing among Young People in Social Media (2018)

#114: The Hype Machine: Political Implications of the Social Media Industrial Complex, with Prof. Sinan Aral

September 19, 2020 Academics

Sinan Aral, David Austin Professor of Management at MIT and Director of MIT’s Initiative on the Digital Economy, discusses his new book “The Hype Machine: How Social Media Disrupts Our Elections, Our Economy, and Our Health—and How We Must Adapt.”


Prof. Aral breaks down key theoretical concepts from the book, which outlines some of the fundamental mechanisms for how social media platforms operate. We also discuss the science behind these concepts and they implications they have for elections, politics, and society. 

#104: Online Engagement and Digital Campaigning for Pete Buttigieg, with Stefan Smith

April 12, 2020 Digital Strategists

Stefan Smith, former Online Engagement Director at Pete for America, discusses the role of social media in digital organizing and campaigning during the 2020 Democratic Primaries. We break down two of Stefan’s grassroots initiatives — the Digital Captains program and Digital Door Knocking program — and how they contributed to the overall campaign.

 

We also talk about the political viability of Pinterest and Reddit, alongside more traditional platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. 

#96: Pro-Trump Social Networks: The Donald on Reddit and TheDonald.win

December 3, 2019 Civil Society

A moderator of Reddit’s The Donald guests to discuss the notorious subreddit community, and the new pro-Trump online forum: TheDonald.win.

We discuss the role of memes in these online forums, how memes are used for redpilling, and the steps Reddit has taken to limit the reach of pro-Trump social networks.

#79: Presidential Campaigning, Digital Media, and US Elections, with Dr. Jennifer Stromer-Galley

May 12, 2019 Academics


Dr. Jennifer Stromer-Galley, Professor of Information Studies at Syracuse University, guests to share her research on American presidential campaigns and their digital media use since 1996.


We discuss her award-winning book, Presidential Campaigning in the Internet Age, as well as its upcoming second edition, which includes a chapter on the 2016 election. Dr. Stromer-Galley breaks down how American campaigns’ digital strategy has changed over time, how it hasn’t, and what these practices reflect about democracy.

#77: Ukraine Presidential Elections and Social Media Campaigning, with Mikhail Fedorov

April 13, 2019 Digital Strategists

Mikhail Fedorov, Chief Digital Strategist for Vladimir Zelensky, joins the podcast to discuss digital campaigning ahead of the 2019 Ukrainian Presidential Elections. We discuss how Zelensky, the election’s frontrunner, is using tools like Facebook, YouTube, and Telegram to grow a support base and coordinate volunteers’ canvassing efforts. We also talk about bots, trolls, and fake news in Ukraine ahead of the election, and how the Zelensky campaign is working to avoid information pollution on their online channels.

Be sure to check out the podcast’s Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube channels!